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Further analysis Holding periods, full scenario matrix & source data

Historical holding periods

Unfortunately, compounding takes time.

These are historical holding periods, not withdrawal options. The proposed term stays 15 years.

Here is what could happen moving forward.

Above is what actually happened. Each square shows what $5,000,000 could become after 15 years at a different level of future QQQ growth and volatility (choppiness).

Modeled 3× values are net of the 1% annual management fee; QQQ is a gross benchmark. Green beats QQQ; red trails it. Year-end deductions are illustrative.

Columns: QQQ annualized growth. Rows: annualized volatility.

Select a scenario to inspect its calculation.

We want high tech-stock returns and low volatility. That combination helps TQQQ. Low returns and high volatility work against it.

QQQ’s annualized volatility was about 20% over 2010–2025, including COVID and the 2022 tech selloff. A calmer next 15 years would help, but isn’t assured.

Could AI drive another exceptional era? Blackstone’s Jon Gray points to America’s 1870–1900 industrial transformation, when the economy roughly quadrupled. Historical estimates put real GDP growth at about 4.6% a year, versus 2.4% from 2010–2025. If AI fuels another productivity boom, faster economic growth could lift company profits and substantially improve stock returns.

Scenario assumptions & sources

Illustration, not a forecast. Annual 3× log return = 3 ln(1 + QQQ growth) − 3 × volatility² − 0.05. Ending wealth = $5,000,000 × exp(15 × log return) × 0.99¹⁵; QQQ = $5,000,000 × (1 + growth)¹⁵. The 0.05 is an illustrative annual log financing and fund-fee drag, not a measured historical cost. Modeled 3× values include the 1% annual management fee through a 0.99¹⁵ factor; QQQ is a gross benchmark. Taxes are excluded. Year-end deductions are illustrative, not a billing policy.

The main graph shows reproducible synthetic daily illustrations, not observed data or forecasts. Each path uses 3,780 sessions (252 per year for 15 years), with fixed-seed Gaussian shocks shared across scenarios. We center and rescale those shocks so QQQ has exactly the stated CAGR and annualized sample standard deviation of daily log returns. These assumptions do not uniquely determine a path; the chosen seed is one illustration with no assigned probability.

Each day, QQQ compounds by exp(r), and the 3x illustration compounds by [1 + 3 × (exp(r) − 1)] × exp(−0.05/252), where r is that day's QQQ log return. This retains the grid's illustrative annual log cost of 0.05, applied daily. The 3× path also deducts 1% at every 252nd session (each modeled year-end); taxes are excluded. Exact daily resetting differs from the grid's approximate annual log formula, including higher-order and finite-sample effects; the audit below shows both endings. Gaussian examples omit real-world fat tails, liquidity failures and other risks; downside is not a worst-case bound. No measured or promised TQQQ tracking performance is implied.

Illustrative daily path calibration and model comparison
CaseRealized QQQ CAGRRealized volatilityDaily 3x endingGrid approximationDifference

Historical reference: the same saved Yahoo adjusted daily closes, 11 February 2010–11 February 2025. QQQ volatility is sample standard deviation of daily log returns × √252; growth is its exact 15-year CAGR. The grid shows only positive-growth scenarios; losses and outcomes outside these ranges remain possible.

Johnston and Williamson’s reconstructed real U.S. GDP: $137,323,000,000 in 1870 to $521,778,000,000 in 1900 (2017 dollars), 3.80× or 4.55% annualized. BEA annual real GDP: $16,789,750,000,000 in 2010 to $23,943,305,000,000 in 2025 (chained 2017 dollars), 2.394% annualized; FRED vintage 30 September 2026. Gray’s slide cites Robert J. Gordon (1999), “U.S. Economic Growth since 1870: One Big Wave?”, for real output growth, rounded to 4× (4.73% annualized). Our displayed 4.6% uses the independent Johnston/Williamson reconstruction. Historical GDP includes population growth. GDP does not translate one-for-one into equity returns; valuations and companies’ ability to capture profits matter.

Data, assumptions & optional exploration

Proposed terms: 15 years fixed; no customer selling or withdrawals. $0 upfront service fee; 1% annual management fee.

Dollar outcomes use USD fund returns, without CAD/USD conversion. Email inquiries use the same numeric starting amount in CAD.

Historical outcomes, gross, before management fees: TQQQ , ; QQQ , . These figures describe the historical window most recently selected in the graph. Future illustrations do not change this audit.

The proposed 15-year custody/control structure would prevent customer-directed selling or withdrawals. No custodian, enforceable legal arrangement, eligibility rules, or regulatory structure has been established. A lockup also removes access to money you may need.

TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) targets 3× the daily return of the Nasdaq-100. QQQ (Invesco QQQ) tracks the same index without that leverage. TQQQ does not promise 3× the long-term return. Daily resets, volatility and financing affect outcomes. Fund expenses are reflected in observed prices; taxes and transaction costs are excluded.

Data: Yahoo Finance split- and distribution-adjusted daily closes. 4,188 shared sessions, February 11, 2010–October 6, 2026. TQQQ’s issuer inception is February 9, 2010; the saved market series starts two days later. There is no fabricated or filled history. The incomplete October 7 session is excluded. The exact 15-year view uses 3,774 closes through February 11, 2025.

Calculation: value = $5,000,000 × adjusted end/start price. Annualized growth = the 15th root of the ending multiple minus one; it summarizes uneven annual returns, not a rate earned steadily. Full history uses elapsed days ÷ 365.2425 and does not change the proposed commitment. Values and exit comparisons are gross, before management feess unless labeled after fee. Illustrative net values deduct 1% of assets at each investment-year end, including principal. This timing is a modeling assumption, not a billing policy.

Largest TQQQ drawdown: −81.7% from 19 November 2021 to 28 December 2022. The adjusted prior peak was regained on 4 December 2024, just over three years after that peak. The pandemic episode fell 69.92% from 19 February to 20 March 2020.

Perspective: this is one unusually strong historical window, not a typical or expected 15-year result. It excludes the dot-com crash and 2008 crisis. Another starting date can produce very different outcomes. Drawdowns use daily closes, so intraday losses may be larger. Prior recoveries do not assure future recovery.

Every drawdown over 39%

Red segments run from a high-water peak to the lowest daily adjusted close before that peak is recovered. Hollow dot: peak. Solid dot: trough. Each episode is counted once; nested falls are not counted separately. Depth must be strictly greater than 39% before rounding. This table follows the selected view and includes qualifying unrecovered episodes.

TQQQ drawdowns in the selected historical window
PeakTroughFallRecovery

Explore the same data

Exit assumptions: sell and reinvest at the exact named closes; cash earns 0%; no taxes, service fees, trading costs or slippage. Dates were selected with hindsight at severe lows, not as a predictive strategy or a claim about typical investor behavior. Other exit dates or cash yields could improve or worsen the comparison.

Actual annual compounding

First trading close on/after each February 11 anniversary. Each annual return begins at the previous actual anniversary close. No additional contributions.

TQQQ · first fifteen years · gross, before management fees
YearClosing dateAnnual returnValue of $5,000,000

Saved source checks reconcile one vendor’s adjustment fields and selected TQQQ issuer return benchmarks. They do not independently verify every quote; there is no saved independent QQQ issuer-return match.